Standings
Team Record by Game Type
More information regarding Team Record by Game Type
The Team Record by Game Type is based on an idea I saw in a Bill James Baseball Abstract (exact year unknown; it was in an Abstract from the 1980s). It showed how a specific team did in various types of games, and it is exactly the sort of thing that I really like.
The table is sorted by point percentage (Point % column), so each team’s content order will be different and logically related game types could be well separated. Since that is the way that Bill James did it, it must be the correct way.
OT/SO is a team’s record in overtime and shootout games. These games are impossible to lose, so the loss count will always be zero. A loss is a game in which a team gets no standing points; a tie is a game in which a team gets one standing point, as they do in overtime or shootout losses.
Conceding Exactly 3 Goals and Scoring Exactly 3 Goals show how teams did in games where they scored enough to have a chance to win or conceded just enough that they could win.
1-Goal Margin, 2-Goal Margin and Blowouts (More than 4-goal margin) are for games with scores like 6-5, 6-4 and 6-1 (respectively). The 1-goal games do not include OT/SO games.
Defensive Battles and Fire-wagon Hockey are for games with scores like 2-0 and 7-3 (respectively). The entire set of Defensive Battle scores are 3-0, 2-1, 2-0 and 1-0.
Vs. Playoff Team and Vs. Non-Playoff Team are based on opponent playoff status at the end of the season, not at the time of the game. Two examples: Pittsburgh would be a non-playoff opponent and Florida would be a playoff opponent.
Best 10-Game Streak and Worst 10-Game Streak need no further explanation.
Home Games, Away Games and All Games need no further explanation.
Hide additional Information regarding Team Record by Game Type
Talent Distribution
More information regarding Talent Distribution
The Talent Distribution tables show how player talent is distributed in a team.
The Count by Category table shows how many players the team has in each of the six PR Categories, broken down by position. It is good to have PR-Elite and PR-Star players.
The PR% by Age Group table shows where the team’s productivity lies by age group. For context, it also shows the league averages.
If a team has a lot of talent in the younger age groups you would think that was a good omen for the team’s future, while if the team has a lot of talent in the older age groups that would seem to be a bad omen: old players don’t get better, they get worse.
The PR% by Draft Status shows how a team acquired the talent they have, by one of three categories: they drafted the player, another team drafted the player, or the player was undrafted. In order to provide a little context, league averages are also shown.
This information is more “how a team got their talent” than “how a team should get its talent.”
It would be nice if the players a team drafts do well and stay with the team, but it is also nice to acquire talent from other teams, and it is also nice to sign an undrafted free agent.
Hide additional Information regarding Talent Distribution
Return From Play Dollars
More information regarding Return From Play Dollars
Return From Play (RFP) translates a player’s Productivity Rating into a dollar amount that is loosely based on the 2021-22 salary cap. It has nothing to do with how much a player was paid: it is about how much a player was worth.
We do this sort of thing all the time. “They charged me $10 for the hamburger, but it tasted like a $30 steak.” “I bought my used car for $10,000, but it rides like a $50,000 car.” “I paid $500 a night for a hotel in Toronto; the place might have been worth $200.”
In 2022-23, Zach Hyman (EDM) was in the PR-Star category and had a PR-Score of 8.6554. His RFP was $7,040,000, based on his PR-Score. Essentially, he played like a $7-million player.
Seasonal RFPs can be added together, producing a total RFP for a player over time. Auston Matthew’s (TOR) return from play in his career is $55,920,000.
The RFP of all players on a team can be added together, telling us something about the level of talent on it. Colorado’s RFP in 2022-23 was $78,340,000, while the RFP of Columbus was $59,455,000. Colorado had the better players.
Hide additional Information regarding Return From Play Dollars
Lines and Pairs
More information regarding Lines & Pairs
The Lines and Pairs section consists of the chart above and the table below. The chart shows where the team’s talents are in comparison to the league average, while the table shows which players are on which forward line or which defensive pair.
Players are sorted by team, by position and by their PR-Score. Traded players will use have their PR-Score apportioned based on how many games they played with each team. A player who played 50 games with one team and 25 games with a second team will be assigned 2/3 of his PR-Score for the team he played 50 games for, and 1/3 of his PR-Score for the team he played 25 games for.
The top three forwards are identified as the first line, the next three as the second line, and so on. There is no guarantee that any line has actually played even one second together during the season: the lines and pairs are solely based on productivity rating.
There are times when a player who was traded at the trade deadline will appear on the L&P table for both teams he played for. That just means that he was one of the top twelve forwards (or top six defensemen) for both teams, based on the statistics he accumulated with each team.
Hide Information regarding Lines & Pairs
Team Leaders – Stapled To The Bench Categories
More information regarding Team Leaders – Stapled To The Bench Categories
The Team Leader table identifies the best player on the team in six Stapled To The Bench categories. I will not go into the formulas used.
- The Most Productive player is the player with the highest PR-Score.
- The Most Valuable player is the player with the highest VR-Score.
- The Best Center is the player who was their team’s most highly rated center.
- The Most Disruptive player is based on blocked shots, hits and take-aways.
- The Best Power Player is based on both individual and team statistics that comes from powerplay time-on-ice.
- The Best Penalty Killer is based on statistics that comes from short-handed time-on-ice.
Hide additional Information regarding Team Leaders – Stapled To The Bench Categories
Team Leaders – On-Ice Situations
More information regarding Team Leaders – On-Ice Situations
- The Team Leaders for various On-Ice situations table shows the players who got the most ice-time in certain situations.
- In the time categories, players are ranked by ice-time (in minutes played) over the season, not on ice-time per game played.
- A player who is normally heavily used in a certain situation but who missed a non-trivial number of games could fall out of the top five for his team.
- The two non-time categories show players ranked by the percent of their shifts that started in offensive or defensive zones.
- While I normally prefer to use actual counts, it seemed correct for these two categories to use percentages, provided they played a minimum number of minutes during the season.
- A minimum-time criteria avoids avoid identifying a player who played one or two games during the season as being one of the most heavily used offensive zone or defensive zone players.
Hide Information regarding Team Leaders – On-Ice Situations
Team Essay #1 – Chart Options
I come neither to praise the Leafs nor to bury them. I live in Ottawa and am a fan of the Senators: it isn’t necessary to dislike the Leafs, but it happens naturally. To avoid both bashing and praising the Leafs, I’ll do an article about how best to show an oddity in Toronto’s regular season play. Let’s start with worst way: just numbers.
Now I have to admit that I’m a numbers guy, so the oddity just jumped out at me from this table (it’s also visible on the Team Results Table). When comparing teams it is generally good to compare teams that are similar: the other teams in the table all were within four points of Toronto at the end of the season.
I will reveal the oddity after the next examples. The two charts are the same chart showing the same data, with the only difference between them being the horizontal scale.
The oddity for Toronto is that they had a better record against playoff-bound teams than against teams that didn’t make the playoffs.
It is usually a good idea to ensure charts go down to 0.000, as does Chart #1. In this specific instance, it is a good idea to zoom in on the actual data range, as in Chart #2. This could be considered a statistical trick, as it emphasizes the difference between the blue and orange lines. That’s okay with this oddity because it is the difference which is interesting.
I think a bar chart best displays the oddity.
The hardest part about this chart is coming up with a title: I couldn’t think of a title that fit inside the chart. “Points Percentage Difference Between Non-Playoff Opponents and Playoff Opponents” is less a title and more a paragraph, but it does explain what is being shown.
Also missing is an explanation of the horizontal scale. Bars going to the right show that a team had a better record against non-playoff teams: for example, Carolina’s points-percentage against non-playoff teams was 0.198 higher than their points-percentage against playoff teams. The stub going to the left shows that Toronto had a slightly better record against playoff teams. The different lengths of bars show just how odd Toronto’s record against non-playoff teams was, compared to teams that had about the same record.
You’ll also notice that I used abbreviations in place of team names. Full team names just made the chart messier to read.
Is focusing on Toronto’s record against non-playoff teams a slight to the Leafs? I don’t think so, but we could also chart Toronto’s record against the playoff-bound teams.
It goes to figure. If Toronto had an unusually poor record against non-playoff teams compared to the teams close to them in the standings, they had to have been better against playoff-bound teams.
Which chart you’d use depends on what you want to focus on.
Toronto’s relatively poor play against the lesser lights of the league did not hurt them in the standings. Given their record against playoff-bound teams, they should have gone 33-6-4 against non-playoff teams. That would have given them 123 points instead of the 111 points they actually had. They would have been in exactly the same playoff slot, and would have faced exactly the same first-round opponent.
Team Essay #2 – Respect Given, Grudgingly
Auston Matthews was the sixth best center in the league, and he was the most disruptive forward in the league (DX – Disruption Index). If you watch a Leaf game and pay attention to what Matthews does when the opposition has the puck, you are bound to be impressed.
John Tavares had the fourth highest powerplay rating in the league (PX – Powerplay Index). No, really, he was fourth in the league. He was the highest rated powerplay specialist that did not play for the Edmonton Oilers.
Mitchell Marner was the 13th most productive player in the league (Productivity Rating), and Auston Matthews was the 3rd most valuable player in the league (Value Rating).
Mark Giordano was the oldest player in the league, and Toronto got more than their money’s worth from him.